Showdown Joe’s UFC 205 Betting Guide, Part 2!

Check out part one at THIS LINK.

We’ve heard the term thrown out dozens upon dozens of times before, but it’s safe to say that Saturday night’s UFC 205 event is the most stacked card of all time. In part one, we took a look at some of the fun bets slated for the prelims. Now, it’s time to examine some of the riskier yet salivating props for the event’s pay per view portion.

Kicking off the six bout main card will be former UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion Miesha Tate, looking to make a quick return to immediate title contention, as she takes on her former “student” on The Ultimate Fighter, Raquel Pennington.

I don’t believe this will be a (cup) cake walk for the -170 favorite in Tate. While Pennington is an understandable +150, she will put up a stern challenge for the former champ. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one goes the distance, but it’s a matching price of -170 … same as the favorite. But if you pick Miesha to win via decision, it pays +155.

If this one is going to end before the final bell, the betting public seems to think it will be Tate at +240, favoring a submission at +340 over a T/KO at +740, which continues to rise in price.

Next up on the pay per card is a welterweight tilt between Kelvin Gastelum (+135) and Donald Cerrone (-155). When this bout was first put together, my initial inclination was that Kelvin, who could easily compete at 185 lbs, would big brother the smaller man in Cerrone. But Donald has proven his worth at 170 lbs. He may be smaller in stature, but that also means he will likely have a significant speed advantage.

His striking precision is nearly unmatched in MMA, so look for him to pull off some exceptional combinations in the octagon. And at +465 for a Cowboy T/KO, it’s about as solid a prop as you are ever going to find.

The third bout on the main card will see former middleweight champion Chris Weidman finally return to the octagon, since losing his title 11 months ago. The American is set to take on Cuban standout Yoel Romero.

Chris is the favorite at -175 but my gut is telling me to go against the public on this one. At first glance, I like the +155 on Yoel. I also like the +330 on a Romero T/KO as well as the +313 on Romero winning inside the distance. The +2235 on Yoel by submission is a bit of a pipe dream for this guy.

There are three title fights at UFC 205, and the first one will see Women’s Strawweight Champion Joanna Jędrzejczyk defend her title vs. fellow Poland native Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Unlike many of her other fights, this one is more than personal … this one has national bragging rights attached to it.

Joanna is the biggest favorite on this card (-410), so in essence, that’s Latin for her winning via some sort of finish. History has shown us that she brutalizes her opponents with her striking acumen, so the Latin lingo continues: the champ via T/KO at +280 is not necessarily a lock, but one has to think it just about is as close to one as we will likely see on this whole card.

The co-main event will see UFC Welterweight Champion Tyron Woodley defend his title for the very first time. His opponent: Stephen Thompson. The champ is getting no love from the public (+170) as it’s the challenger (-200) who many believe will emerge victorious.

I believe these two odds are simply too far apart and that they should be closer. Mind you, I do wonder if this one will actually go the distance. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tyron’s explosiveness does get the better of Stephen and it also wouldn’t shock me one bit, if “The Wonderboy’s” striking crushes “The Chosen One” at MSG.

If you think the champ will do the same thing he did to Robbie Lawler, then you’ll get a nice +318 on your money. If you favour the challenger instead, +135 isn’t so bad either.

We’ve now arrived at the main event of the evening. Lightweight Champ Eddie Alvarez will defend his title for the first time against the sport’s biggest draw: featherweight champion Conor McGregor.

The public likes the Irishman at -155, leaving the American standing a tad bewildered at +135. I am also leaning towards McGregor partially because of his five inch reach advantage. His striking continues to improve and so I wouldn’t be surprised if is able to keep Alvarez at bay.

There’s a very good chance Conor will eventually land that punishing combination that will take Eddie out. If you fancy a McGregor T/KO, you will be joining the vast majority of bettors. Unfortunately, it only pays +103. To be honest, it’s not a bad option to take.

No matter which way you look at UFC 205, it should be an absolutely stellar event. It’s been a long time coming for the UFC, so expect a few surprises from the organization, especially from within the arena and perhaps even during the pay per view broadcast. It’s a special event, not just for us, the media and fans, but for them as well.

As always, if you have any of your own fun bets, let me know why you consider them worthy plays. Feel free to him me up on social media, via Facebook, Twitter and Instagram: @ShowdownJoe.